Big changes in our overall weather pattern are upon us as the National Weather Service is forecasting the possibility of the first snowfall of the season Wednesday night into Thursday morning atop Killington Peak.
The Weather Channel, Accuweather.com and Snowforecast.com are all calling for cooler temperatures and rain, but no snow. So what how much credibility can we put into the NWS forecast for our first snowfall of the season?
For starters, the National Weather Service utilizes a pinpoint forecast for Killington Peak at an elevation of 3,113, which is about the halfway between the K-1 Lodge and Killington Peak, or about halfway down Cascade Trail. Snowforecast.com uses the same NWS forecast for 3,113 feet. The Weather Channel forecast, displayed on our snow report page, is pinpointed for Snowshed Lodge at 2,000 feet. Accuweather.com is forecasting for the Town of Killington at approximately 1,000 feet.
All organizations use similar data in preparing forecasts, but meteorologist’s interpretation of the information is where the variables come into play. In addition, computer models, synthetic forecasts, normal “climatic” values and historical data are all tools utilized for compiling forecast information. The University of Illinois offers basic forecasting information in its WW2010 project.
Looking back, last season we saw a quick dusting of snow in early October. That snow stuck to the slopes for about two hours before melting away. Then on Oct. 22, 2008 (pictured here), the first significant snowfall of the season occurred with 7 inches falling at the Peak. The following week on Oct. 28, 2008 another 10 inches fell at the Peak and snowmaking was underway. We opened for skiing and riding Nov. 2-6, then re-opened for the season on Nov. 19, 2008.
Regardless, if you’re heading to the Killington Brewfest, dress accordingly because the forecast is calling for cooler temps and a chance of showers.